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John Rubino – Portfolio Management Strategies For Gold And Silver Stocks

 

 

John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on the macroeconomic factors driving gold and silver, along with strategies for portfolio management in the precious metals stocks.

 

We start off discussing how the higher underlying metals environment has started allowing for more investor confidence in the gold producers maintaining healthy margins and valuations, which is attracting more generalist investor capital flows. Additionally, now the gold development projects economics are starting to look more and more attractive.  John discusses how he is still striking a balance between have exposure to the larger PM producers and royalty companies, but also have exposure further down the risk curve into the exploration stocks as “lottery tickets.”

 

This leads into a discussion about some of the developers with large resource bases delineated, like Seabridge Gold, and whether or not they will be acquired or built in this cycle; after sitting available for development since the prior cycle.  We dig in to if the reservation from other companies to acquire them is due to jurisdiction, capex requirements, or if it is simply a lack of human capital. John weighs in on what aspects he would describe as “high quality,” and the importance of limiting the amount of portfolio positions to the companies one can really do proper due diligence on.

 

 

Wrapping up we circle back to macroeconomic factors that may drive gold prices even higher.  We start of focusing in on the rising sovereign debt levels in countries all over the world, and the changes in the Basel III demarcation for gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset that more banks will be buying to gain more exposure to and diversify their asset mix.  We talk about BRICS countries continuing to reduce down US dollar exposure and mitigate potential trade wars by increasing their gold holding. Lastly we reflect on the increased retailing buying, using the example of new limits on gold purchases from Costco as another tailwind for gold, that may spill over into more sympathetic investment in silver.

 

 

Click here to follow John’s analysis and articles over at Substack

Discussion
26 Comments
    May 30, 2025 30:52 AM

    Key Takeaways From The Natural Resource Stock Expo In Atlanta – Part 1

    Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (05-29-2025)

    Guanajuato Silver $GSVR, West Red Lake Gold $WRLG, Scottie Resources $SCOT, Angkor Resources $ANK, Sonoro Gold $SGO, Mandalay Resources $MND

    https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/key-takeaways-from-the-natural-resource

    Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:58 PM

      Thanks again for your tireless effort. Everyday.

      Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:30 PM

    Ex, did you tell John Rubino that you have 70 stocks in your portfolio! LOL! DT

    Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:52 PM

      Ex has got a Nvidia chip implant, the Chinese will figure out how to read and dissect your brain for stock selection, and they will build your formula into their algorithmic stock selecting robots. DT 🤣🤣🤣

      Reply
        May 31, 2025 31:54 AM

        Haha! Good one DT. 🙂

        I only have 56 stocks at present, and I differ greatly in opinion with John//Rick on those points of how much due diligence is needed on a weekly/monthly basis for each portfolio position.

        First of all I think a lot of investors waste a lot of time in chat rooms on various sites endlessly debating the same pet stocks they have all day long, or running all these overly complex models about what could happen etc…. and that is not really due diligence or necessary. The point being, many investors are not prudent with their time management.

        Second point, investors are supposed to do the heavy lifting of due diligence BEFORE they buy a stock, and after that all that is really needed is keeping up with press releases. Many companies only put out a new press release once a month, and some larger companies don’t put out much of substance except on their quarterly operations / financials.

        So what in the hell are people doing 1 hour of due diligence on for these companies once a week on?

        Do most investors that own Nvidia, or Apple, or Google, really spend 1 hour a week doing due diligence on the company fundamentals on how chips or smart phones are made? (I think not)

        Those press releases take 5-10 minutes to read over once a quarter to review, and in the vast majority of cases, no action is required in one’s portfolio.

        When people say they just can’t keep up with that many companies I call B.S. There isn’t even that much to keep up with for producers or royalty companies, especially if all the due diligence was already done before buying the stock. How much time does it take to read a quarterly operations/financial statement? What in the world are they doing due diligence on the rest of the quarter. It takes 3 minutes to fire up a chart and look at it technically to distill down if it is a buy/sell/hold. There just isn’t much time needed on most of these.

        For example, I have 6 royalty stocks that require barely any ongoing due diligence… they have huge baskets of royalties, most of which they’ve had for years and there isn’t really that much to keep up with other than their quarterly operations/financials. I spend hardly any time reviewing a company like Sandstorm or EMX Royalty or Elemental Altus (other than when I speak to their management teams periodically) because not much changes month in to month out, or really year end to year out. Either you like the company and are sticking with it or you don’t.

        That is the same thing with about 20+ gold and silver producers I hold, that don’t really put out that much news other than quarterlies. Why in the world would I spend an hour a week on each one of those as R.R. claims is necessary, when there isn’t really anything even happening in them on a weekly basis?

        I hold 6 uranium producers and advanced developers that I’ve followed for many years now, and again, I don’t really see that much fundamentally changing with most of them weekly or monthly. I spend 5-10 minutes reading over their news when they issue it to the market, and again rarely make any adjustments after doing so. Occasionally, I’ll see a market disconnect, like what happened over the last 6-12 months in enCore, that I’ll exploit when the market overreacts, but in general I’m not making any major changes to my positions in UEC or Energy Fuels based on fundamentals.

        What I will do for all these companies – royalty companies, gold, silver, uranium producers, is use technical analysis and charts to trade around the core positions; adding or selling some based on probabilistic risk/reward setups. Even then, I don’t like overly complex charting, because simplicity will outperform complexity over and over again…. so even the charting only really takes a couple of minutes to work up and make a decision to buy or sell a tranche in a given company. Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) is a better approach than all kinds of technical gyrations and mental gymnastics that I see some folks doing on Twitter or in chat rooms.

        Then with developers…. many of them are in the boring phase of derisking large projects with ounces in the ground, working on permitting, metallurgy, engineering, advancing their next economic study, or putting together their capital stack. In a sense they are boring on the newsflow, but have the optionality to higher metals prices improving the value of their projects. Again, there really isn’t that much to follow along with, and if they hit a key milestone and press release it, then I’ll read it, but it rarely makes me adjust my position.

        Again, I use TA more for adjusting my trades than fundamentals. As the saying goes, “Fundamentals tell you what to buy, and technicals tell you when to buy or sell.”

        *** Of course there are wildcard exceptions if some fundamental news comes from completely out of left field (like a mine collapse, or a flood in a mine, or an sudden merger/acquisition announcement, or an unexpectedly great new discovery, etc…).

        However, even in those cases, no amount of time spent doing “due diligence for an hour a week on each company” could have prepared anyone, including the management teams of those companies, for that surprise news. Everyone has to react in the moment to those key inflection points in a company’s news, and there is no way to study in advance for those moments… so all this continued due diligence mantra we hear out there amounts to poppycock advice.

        I scan my portfolio for outsized moves. If a stock is up 10-20% in a day, THEN I’ll go look for what the news catalyst is, and invariably it is something that tons of book studying could not have prepared anyone for… to the upside or downside. Problems hit suddenly, and then you react. Good news hits suddenly, and then you react. Again, those types of scenarios don’t really happen that often, and can be taken on a case-by-case basis…. as they pop up.

        –> The one exception is with the explorers where they live and die more by newsflow, and often the news of thinly traded drill plays can suddenly swamp even the technical setup on the charts.

        In the case of the drill plays, yes, you need to stay on top of them and they can change drastically from week to week and news release to news release. I think the nuanced point that John and R.R. have made, if you listen carefully to the caveats they throw in, is that you can’t affectively follow 30-50 explorers and do it part-time. I know plenty of investors and newsletter writers that can follow that many explorers, but they are full-time, systematic, utilize spreadsheets and company notes, and manage their time well. We follow hundreds of companies at the KER, but this is our job. If someone is part-time investing, and they’ve elected to only invest in explorers (which I’d personally never do), then they need to have a portfolio that lines up with the time they have to follow each stock properly since they are so news-dependent.

        I was just at these conferences with high-net-worth serious players in the resource investing space, and we went around the table a few times and shared portfolio construction and makeups. One guy had 65 stocks, one guy had over 100 stocks, one had 160 stocks, one guy had 48 stocks, etc….

        I don’t think my 56 stocks is that outlandish as a full-time investor… again, considering the weighting to producers, royalty companies, and developers that don’t really have that much news to digest each month or quarter. Honestly, it doesn’t take that much time and most of these positions I’ve followed for many years now and not much is changing other than sector sentiment and their technical setup.

        For example, one of my best trades this year has been in Avino Silver and Gold. Now I’ve done a lot of due diligence in past years on it, so it didn’t really require that much new due diligence in 2025. (maybe I’ve spent 2 hours in DD all year?) Most of that research was in preparing to interview the CEO David Wolfin to be able to ask timely questions or for doing updates for my Substack articles for double-checking my understanding or digging into tables, graphics, and guidance… it wasn’t really for my personal trading purposes as I was already positioned and trade based on TA). I just trimmed some off the position for 356% gains, and it didn’t require tons of DD or much time to have ASM in my portfolio or great returns .

        *** Bottom line, I think many investors parrot the lines “You can’t follow that many companies” or “I don’t have time to follow that many companies” or “I don’t have time for trading…” but the reality is that if one is organized, keeps things on spreadsheets, they have company notes in place, and they spend a few minutes a month on a company, then they can trade just as well (sometimes even better) than someone spending an hour a week on every company in their portfolio…. often overthinking things and making bad trades as a result of making mountains out of mole hills.

        Cory and I literally have interviewed hundreds of different companies over the last few years, and we have notes on each one and can pick it up right were we left off after a 15 minute chat with a management team. People say to us all the time…. “I don’t know how you guys can follow all those different companies.” We spend some time preparing for calls in advance, read the news, scan a refreshed slide deck, talk to management, and in less than 30 minutes I can have a sense of a completely new story, and then after that it’s just following along with news (which takes maybe 5-10 minutes).

        So the reality is people have to put in work and spend some time on the front end, but after that following newsflow is not really that time consuming and neither is efficient price charting. Most people just aren’t organized, and don’t manage their time well, and spend all kinds of time parsing the same stock from a million different vantage points, and I see that as 100% unnecessary to be an effective investor or trader.

        I think the harsh reality is that a LOT of investors are actually quite lazy, don’t do the proper initial due diligence, and instead just buy on a “hot tip,” but then they don’t KNOW why they even own baskets of stocks in their portfolio. I think THAT is the real point RR and John are driving at behind the surface… where many investors have no clue what they even own.. and are in a few dozen drill plays that they know nothing about hoping to strike it rich. It’s easy to see why the masses fail in resource investing.

        Reply
          May 31, 2025 31:56 AM

          One more point…. I just spent more time on that post (in the spirit of helping investors and dispelling silly notions that percolate through our sector), than I do on most company DD in my portfolio, because that took much longer to consider and weigh in on than the vast majority of company newsflow does to digest.

          Reply
          May 31, 2025 31:10 AM

          Hi Ex, thanks for the response I knew you would overdeliver as usual. I am glad you covered that subject, after listening to your interview with John Rubino, it needed to be addressed. I have followed the gold miners in Red Lake for many years that is why I like WRLG, I understand what is happening there and it requires very little of my attention. (besides my real passion is watching Sci-Fi films from the fifties) DT

          Reply
            May 31, 2025 31:17 AM

            Thanks DT.

            Yeah, I much prefer watching sci-fi films to reading over mining press releases as well. 😉

    May 30, 2025 30:50 PM

    NVDA has finally challenged the 140 area that I mentioned weeks ago:
    https://schrts.co/jyRXgMNI

    Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:52 PM

    Nice action today:
    HUI
    https://schrts.co/PTUKMaNz

    Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:56 PM

    It was a very, very good month. +27.9%, despite leaving a lot on the table with taking 30% off my oversized position in CDE, Good call Matthew. In the black finally with NewFound (NFGC)

    Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:10 PM

      Marty, congrats on both. I noticed that NFGC hit $2.32 in after hours when the Sprott financing news came out. Which of course made sense considering the terms.

      Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:24 PM

      Relative to its 50 week MA, NFGC just had its best weekly close since October as well as its best RSI(7) print in over a year. The weekly chart is a clear “buy” so those bailing on strength next week will likely do little to stop its rise.
      https://schrts.co/Fpvgbxph

      Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:45 PM

      Falling resistance to watch next week:
      https://schrts.co/iGgtZApf

      Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:58 PM

    Another bad month for the dollar…
    https://schrts.co/QvMcpVQa

    Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:07 PM
    May 30, 2025 30:38 PM

    GDX:GLD finished the day/week/month very nicely with a 5 or 6 week high close.
    https://schrts.co/tFYDbRDs

    Reply
    May 30, 2025 30:53 PM

    Looks like a big double bottom for Brixton…
    https://schrts.co/wvAaqjGF

    Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:04 PM

      Know they are different plays completely Matthew but they are 2 you follow extensively in Brixton and Impact and if I could only buy one right now I’d be buying impact

      Reply
        May 30, 2025 30:22 PM

        Wolfster, I agree. Brixton could very well outperform Impact but Impact is much more of a “sure thing” in my opinion. I’ve added to both recently but much more to Impact.
        Volume this week was the 2nd best of the year and 9th best of the last 4+ years (9th out of 225 weeks).
        https://schrts.co/CIDjkrSh

        Reply
          May 30, 2025 30:32 PM

          There’s a month left in the quarter but I really like this quarterly IPT:Silver chart (which recently made and all-time low):
          https://schrts.co/iBQhETkk

          Reply
            May 30, 2025 30:43 PM

            Notice that IPT beat silver by 35x from 2002 to 2006 and 9x in the 2016 bear market rally. The coming move will not be a bear market rally.

    May 30, 2025 30:11 PM

    Imagine if you are selling real estate in Florida now, you go from being hero to zero. For 90 years there were no hurricanes in the Tampa area and then all of a sudden there are two in one year and you can’t buy insurance because it is too expensive. Your property needs extensive repairs, and the property tax has dramatically increased because many are in default on their own property taxes and the municipality must rase rates to cover those defaults and then mortgage rates have gone up. Canadians can’t afford Florida anymore because our dollar is so devalued in relation to US currency and we have tariffs and lots of inflation that is making it hard to live at home let alone have a vacation in Florida. Add in The Trump equation and Canadians are shunning vacationing in the US. There go a lot of your renters.

    I wouldn’t want to be holding The Florida real estate bag these days. If homeowners can’t get insurance neither can businesses.

    HOME SWEET FLORIDA, from boom to bust, and now The Dixie highway will have more vehicles leaving than arriving. Florida real estate will recover but not for many years because the dreams have been shattered and investors go from one extreme to another. Real Estate is like any investment it can work for a while but if you are not living in it, you must sell when you have a profit. DT

    Reply
      May 30, 2025 30:39 PM

      Florida real estate peaked in 1925, too. It then went bust in 1926 and ’27. It was a prelude to the stock market crash of 1929. It also peaked in 2006, ahead of the 2008 stock market crash.

      Reply

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